CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-31T18:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-31T18:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32413/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery, and is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap. The source is likely an M5.3 flare and eruption from AR 3768 (S15W73) starting around 2024-07-31T18:05Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible at this time in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery which appear to deflect north of the eruption site. No clear arrival signatures for this event were seen at L1, however there is a possible signature of a flank arrival at STEREO A on 2024-08-03T12:09Z that might indicate the arrival of this CME at STEREO, with a shock in the magnitude of the magnetic field and a slight increase in solar wind speed. Please note that at L1 around 2024-08-04T04:48Z there is an increase in B total to 15nT, with a protracted period of negative Bz with values up to 12 nT; however this is not a clear arrival signature. Analysis of L1/STEREO A signatures was provided by the LASSOS team (Carlos Alanis).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-03T14:35Z (-6.85h, +9.06h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/07/31 18:35Z Plane of Sky 1: 23:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 05:40Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction POS Difference: 6:20 POS Midpoint: 02:30Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:55 Numeric View/Impact Type: 1 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.59 Travel Time: ~8.59 * 7:55 = 68:00 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-03T14:35Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh Forecast Creation Time: 2024/08/01 23:03ZLead Time: 39.47 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-08-01T23:07Z
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